Predicting Graduation

Last week, Craig Jerald, our former Policy Director here at ED in '08, was part of an interesting presentation by the American Youth Policy Forum on improving the transition from middle grades through high schools. He, along with education researchers Robert Balfanz and Elaine Allensworth, pointed out some key findings that should inform both educators and policy makers as they develop strategies to address America's dropout crisis.

Here's the basic idea: the period between the end of middle school and the beginning of high school is often the most telling for identifying potential dropouts. Students who can successfully navigate through this transition are far more likely to ultimately continue through high school and graduate, and research has shown that grades and attendance during the freshman year are critical predictors, much more so than ethnicity, income, or test scores.

For example, in one study of the Chicago Public Schools, more than 95 percent of students with a B average or better in their freshman year ultimately went on to graduate, and nearly 90 percent of freshmen who missed less than a week of school per semester graduated, regardless of their 8th grade test scores.

It may seem like a no-brainer that students who attend school and get good grades will graduate,  but to me these findings firmly underscore two of the ideas we talk about a lot at ED in '08 - effective teachers and time and support for learning. Those students who were fortunate enough to have teachers who could spot these warning signs and support students who were struggling with their coursework, or intervene when noticing patterns of absenteeism, are more likely to be successful in their freshman year and not drop out. In addition, the findings make clear that having enough time in school is directly related to student achievement, something I've addressed before. When students aren't in school, they're falling behind, and will have a harder time mastering content. As my teacher friends and colleagues have told me, students who recognize that they are struggling, become frustrated, and are often at risk for dropping out; they don't see the value in continuing something they aren't successful at.

The implications here for federal policy makers are crucial. In Jerald's words, policy makers should "enact greater accountability for graduation rates," along with providing "support for states and districts to implement early warning data systems," interventions like more time for learning, and incentives for teachers who effectively support students and raise achievement. It's going to take multiple reforms to curb the dropout crisis, but the first step will be leaders who can recognize the need for change and act on that need.